Carbon Budget Reports Second Highest Carbon Emissions in History

Carbon Budget and Trends (2009) published by the Global Carbon Project (2010) on November 21, 2010 shows that, although the growth rate for carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, at 1.6%, is lower than the 2008 level of 1.9%, the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, at 30.8 billion tons in 2009, is the second highest in human history and the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide of 387ppm is the highest in at least two million years.

Growth of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

The report highlights that while the rate of growth of carbon dioxide fell in 2009, the actual growth of carbon emissions continues to grow, even during a global financial crisis.

• The 2009 growth rate for atmospheric carbon dioxide was 1.6 ppm (parts per million) compared to the 2000 – 2008 average of 1.9 ppm.

• The average carbon dioxide growth rate for the previous twenty years, years which saw the highest economic growth rates the world has ever seen, was 1.5 ppm.

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide now stands at 387 ppm, over 30% higher than at the start of the industrial revolution, and higher than at least the last two million years.

• Despite the economic recession in 2009, 30.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide was pumped into the atmosphere in 2009, the second highest (after 2008) in human history.

• The current rate of carbon dioxide emissions is on target to equal the worst case scenario of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) by the year 2015.

Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The report finds that the greatest falls in the emission of carbon dioxide occurred in the developed world, which was more exposed to the global financial crisis, while the developing world, with more carbon-intense economies, recorded rapid growth in carbon dioxide emissions.

• Carbon dioxide emissions in Japan decreased by 11.8%, the UK had an 8.6% decrease, Russia an 8.4%, Germany a 7% and the USA had a 6.9% decrease.

• China’s carbon dioxide emissions increased by 8%, with India increasing by 6.2% and South Korea by 1.4%.

• The top five countries with the largest absolute emissions of carbon dioxide are, China, The USA, India, Russia and Japan.

• Per capita emissions of carbon dioxide in 2009 were led by Saudi Arabia with over 200 tons of carbon per person followed by the USA with just under 200 tons, Australia with 180 tons, Canada with 175 tons and South Korea with 125 tons.

• China emitted just 60 tons of carbon per person while India had just 20 tons of carbon emissions.

• Coal continued its lead as the fossil fuel most responsible for carbon dioxide emissions, contributing 40% of emissions with oil in second at 36%, highlighting the growing use of coal as a fuel in both China and India.

Global Financial Crisis and Carbon Dioxide

As is obvious from the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions, the countries that suffered most from the global financial crisis, western developed countries and Japan, had the greatest falls in the rate of carbon dioxide emissions, while the Asian economies, largely bypassed by the economic downturn, continued to increase their carbon dioxide emissions.

• The report claims that, “The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC).”

• The actual 1.3% decline in fossil fuel emissions was smaller than the expected 2.8% decline due to a combination of a smaller than expected contraction in the Global World Productivity and higher, more carbon-intensive energy usage by the developing world.

• The 1.7% per year improvement in the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) of the last few years fell to a 0.6% improvement in 2009.

• Even with an expected improvement in the carbon intensity of the global economy, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to grow by 3% in 2010 in line with an expected growth of 4% in economic activity.

Notwithstanding the small drop in the growth of carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, Carbon Budget and Trends (2009) confirms the inexorable growth of global carbon dioxide emissions and the dangerously high levels of heat trapping gases in the atmosphere. Even during the worst global financial crisis, the largest producers of greenhouse gas emissions continue to pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, albeit at a slightly lower rate, which in all likelihood could lead to irreversible environmental changes.

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